GOING NUCLEAR: Radiological Terrorism – A Global Threat

Environmental law is not just about the natural environment, important though that is.  It is also about controlling risks to people and wider society. One such risk – which has not generally received the attention by lawyers which it merits – is that of radiological terrorism. Bahram Ghiasee’s book eloquently addresses that omission. As both a long-standing expert in international nuclear law and holding a doctorate in nuclear science and technology from Imperial College, London, as well as a member of the Nuclear Institute, he is well placed to produce this important and seminal work.

Radiological terrorism is distinct from nuclear proliferation risk or nuclear terrorism.  Much has recently been made of the expiration of the last of the arms control treaties between the USA and Russia, and of the heightened risks of the use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict. These are real risks and the world needs to exercise restraint and diligence in limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, particularly through international safeguards. However, the risks of terrorist groups being able to create a viable nuclear weapon are very low. A far greater risk lies in terrorists acquiring radioactive material which could be coupled with conventional explosives to disperse that material (often called a “dirty bomb”). The consequences of such a weapon would literally be fearful.  The radioactive material itself would probably not create many direct deaths, compared with the explosion, but would give rise to massive public fear, would result in potentially large areas of cities or transport infrastructure being rendered unusable, and would cost billions of pounds in clean-up. Just one such incident would be politically and economically devastating: a number carried out in coordination could be nationally crippling. In his Introduction, Dr Ghiassee points out that, based on existing scenarios and studies, the detonation of a dirty bomb in London’s Parliament Square could contaminate 10 square kilometres of the city centre, including Downing Street, the Houses of Parliament and the Supreme Court, as well as underground stations and other transport infrastructure, with huge disruption of government and commercial activities and billions of pounds expended in decontamination and disposal of massive quantities of contaminated material.

What makes this threat so chilling and so real is the very small quantities of radioactive material which would be required to have such an impact. Only a few grams of radioactive caesium chloride, packed into a bomb which could easily be carried in a rucksack or small wheeled case, would be sufficient. This reviewer recalls being consulted in 2006, when Alexander Litvinenko was murdered with only microgram quantities of Polonium-210, easily smuggled into the UK, and which resulted in widespread contamination of premises around London. Unlike plutonium or enriched uranium, the materials for a radiological weapon are widely available, and often unsecured. Their regulation is underdeveloped and unreliable. Past experience shows how easily they can be misappropriated, and their attractiveness to terrorists and would-be terrorists.

Dr Ghiassee provides a compelling account of these risks in his introductory chapters covering radiological threats, the applications and production technologies of radioisotopes, nuclear and radiological incidents and cases of illegal acquisition and trafficking. None of what he says is reassuring. Indeed there is a case that the risks are increasing. The war in Ukraine and severing of links between Russia and other nations and institutions has weakened control. Modern technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence provide new means of delivering radiological weapons, and AI the know-how (and possibly the motivation) to make and use them. Another important factor is the blurring of boundaries between terrorism and organised crime, and the use by some states of terrorist or criminal groups as proxies for attacks on target states. The spectrum of those interested in making use of radiological dispersion devices has also widened beyond Islamic jihadists to include for example right wing extremists and radicalised loners.

At Chapter 6, attention turns to the international legal framework governing radiological terrorism. Whilst since 1963 some 19 binding international legal instruments relating to terrorism have been adopted, universal adherence is lacking. In addition, there are numerous legally non-binding “soft” instruments, as well as UN Security Council Resolutions. The essential problem identified by Dr Ghiassee is that the focus of the international community has been primarily on nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation, and only to a limited extent on radiological security. There is a strong case for a convention on the safety and security of radioactive sources. Moreover, the conflict in Ukraine, where nuclear facilities have been affected, has highlighted starkly the inadequacy of international law on the safety and security of nuclear facilities and radioactive materials during armed conflict. Chapter 7 complements Chapter 6 by looking at the international institutional framework governing nuclear terrorism. The picture is much the same as in Chapter 6: there is work to applaud certainly, but a lack of clear specific focus on radiological terrorism. Also, as clearly appears, the multiplicity of institutions, entities and initiatives can be seen as a demonstration of the current fragmentation of the international framework. Dr Ghiassee suggests a mandated and funded Radiological Security Division or Centre within the IAEA, to coordinate and promote international efforts and to oversee the activities of stakeholders.

As the concluding Chapter 8 points out, these are major challenges for the international community. Dr Ghiassee’s recommendations cover the strengthening of the international legal framework, enhancing the institutional international framework, improving radiological security during transport, mandatory reporting of incidents, improving border controls, addressing the nexus between organised crime and terrorist groups, intelligence sharing, addressing and seeking to eliminate to vulnerability of critical infrastructure and public spaces, the need for better national and emergency preparedness and response procedures, formation of a radiological suppliers’ group (with the precedent of the nuclear suppliers’ group) and ultimately the replacement of radioactive sources with alternative technologies.

The book is not concerned with nuclear power as such – even if there were no nuclear power reactors, radioisotopes would be necessary for numerous industrial and medical applications, making them ubiquitous. Indeed spent nuclear reactor fuel would be an almost impossibly hazardous material to steal as a dirty bomb ingredient, compared with much more readily available and handleable sources. That is not to say that use of conventional explosives targeted on such fuel in store or in transit could not have a devastating impact. Whilst the book does consider the need to adapt to new technologies, one matter it does not address in depth are the implications of advanced nuclear technologies and applications, now seriously in contemplation worldwide. The use of small modular reactors, advanced reactors and micro-modular reactors will raise very different security questions from the gigawatt scale reactors now in use, in terms of their transportability, fuel cycle, and sitting potentially much closer to population centres, giving rise to new risks to be considered.  In future, applications such as nuclear-powered shipping will raise further questions. It would have been helpful to have a discussion as to how Dr Ghiassee views these risks, relative to those of radiological terrorism, which are the proper focus of the book.  However, these are probably matters for the future, and as it stands the book provides a timely and well-researched wake-up call for society. We will all benefit from the close study of Dr Ghiassee’s important book.

Click here to watch Stephen and Dr Ghiassee’s interview.